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Prediction market

Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?

Open Ends Jun 30, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 8%
No 92%

Pollitics result

Yes 30%
No 70%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-22 pts

Polymarket 8% vs Pollitics 30%

No-side gap

+22 pts

Polymarket 92% vs Pollitics 70%

Relative volatility

7.3×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level