PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 7%
No 93%

Pollitics result

Yes 5%
No 95%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

+2 pts

Polymarket 7% vs Pollitics 5%

No-side gap

-2 pts

Polymarket 93% vs Pollitics 95%

Relative volatility

0.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

High

Observed divergence level