PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 0%
No 100%

Pollitics result

Yes 20%
No 80%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-20 pts

Polymarket 0% vs Pollitics 20%

No-side gap

+20 pts

Polymarket 100% vs Pollitics 80%

Relative volatility

6.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level