Prediction market
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-14 pts
Polymarket 6% vs Pollitics 20%
No-side gap
+14 pts
Polymarket 94% vs Pollitics 80%
Relative volatility
4.7×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level