Prediction market
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
0 pts
Polymarket 10% vs Pollitics 10%
No-side gap
0 pts
Polymarket 90% vs Pollitics 90%
Relative volatility
0.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
High
Observed divergence level