Prediction market
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
Rules: This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+6 pts
Polymarket 26% vs Pollitics 20%
No-side gap
-6 pts
Polymarket 74% vs Pollitics 80%
Relative volatility
2.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level