Prediction market
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Rules: The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+6 pts
Polymarket 54% vs Pollitics 48%
No-side gap
-6 pts
Polymarket 46% vs Pollitics 52%
Relative volatility
2.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level