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Prediction market

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Completed Ended Jan 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 20%
No 80%

Pollitics result

Yes 30%
No 70%

Final poll result

Correct answer

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-10 pts

Polymarket 20% vs Pollitics 30%

No-side gap

+10 pts

Polymarket 80% vs Pollitics 70%

Relative volatility

3.3×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level