PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?

Open Ends Mar 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 34%
No 66%

Pollitics result

Yes 45%
No 55%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-11 pts

Polymarket 34% vs Pollitics 45%

No-side gap

+11 pts

Polymarket 66% vs Pollitics 55%

Relative volatility

3.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level