Prediction market
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-8 pts
Polymarket 22% vs Pollitics 30%
No-side gap
+8 pts
Polymarket 78% vs Pollitics 70%
Relative volatility
2.7×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level