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Prediction market

Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?

Open Ends Mar 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for March 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index. An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 42%
No 57%

Pollitics result

Yes 30%
No 70%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

+12 pts

Polymarket 42% vs Pollitics 30%

No-side gap

-13 pts

Polymarket 57% vs Pollitics 70%

Relative volatility

4.2×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level