PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Open Ends Jun 21, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 3%
No 97%

Pollitics result

Yes 5%
No 95%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-2 pts

Polymarket 3% vs Pollitics 5%

No-side gap

+2 pts

Polymarket 97% vs Pollitics 95%

Relative volatility

0.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

High

Observed divergence level