Prediction market
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+12 pts
Polymarket 32% vs Pollitics 20%
No-side gap
-12 pts
Polymarket 68% vs Pollitics 80%
Relative volatility
4.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level