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Prediction market

Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Netherlands following the 2025 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 96%
No 4%

Pollitics result

Yes 70%
No 30%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

+26 pts

Polymarket 96% vs Pollitics 70%

No-side gap

-26 pts

Polymarket 4% vs Pollitics 30%

Relative volatility

8.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level