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Prediction market

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?

Open Ends Jun 30, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, North and South Korea engage in direct talks, defined as an official meeting or communication between government representatives of both sides, conducted without a third-party relaying messages, by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The talks may be in-person, by phone, or virtual, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media. Routine military deconfliction, backchannel exchanges, or talks conducted entirely through another country or organization will not count. The resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 23%
No 77%

Pollitics result

Yes 20%
No 80%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

+3 pts

Polymarket 23% vs Pollitics 20%

No-side gap

-3 pts

Polymarket 77% vs Pollitics 80%

Relative volatility

1.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Moderate

Observed divergence level