Prediction market
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-4 pts
Polymarket 1% vs Pollitics 5%
No-side gap
+4 pts
Polymarket 99% vs Pollitics 95%
Relative volatility
1.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Moderate
Observed divergence level