Prediction market
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-3 pts
Polymarket 10% vs Pollitics 13%
No-side gap
+3 pts
Polymarket 90% vs Pollitics 87%
Relative volatility
1.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Moderate
Observed divergence level
Synthetic panel profile
AI panelPanel details calibrated on self-reported profiles and behaviors observed in election panels.
Assumptions