Prediction market
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+1 pts
Polymarket 11% vs Pollitics 10%
No-side gap
-1 pts
Polymarket 89% vs Pollitics 90%
Relative volatility
0.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
High
Observed divergence level