Prediction market
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Rules: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Final poll result
Correct answer
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Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+19 pts
Polymarket 64% vs Pollitics 45%
No-side gap
-19 pts
Polymarket 36% vs Pollitics 55%
Relative volatility
6.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level