Prediction market
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Rules: The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+11 pts
Polymarket 66% vs Pollitics 55%
No-side gap
-11 pts
Polymarket 34% vs Pollitics 45%
Relative volatility
3.7×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level