PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Open Ends May 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 4%
No 96%

Pollitics result

Yes 10%
No 90%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-6 pts

Polymarket 4% vs Pollitics 10%

No-side gap

+6 pts

Polymarket 96% vs Pollitics 90%

Relative volatility

2.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level