Prediction market
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-13 pts
Polymarket 52% vs Pollitics 65%
No-side gap
+13 pts
Polymarket 48% vs Pollitics 35%
Relative volatility
4.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level