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Prediction market

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

Open Ends Jun 30, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 7%
No 93%

Pollitics result

Yes 15%
No 85%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-8 pts

Polymarket 7% vs Pollitics 15%

No-side gap

+8 pts

Polymarket 93% vs Pollitics 85%

Relative volatility

2.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level