Prediction market
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
Rules: If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+2 pts
Polymarket 22% vs Pollitics 20%
No-side gap
-2 pts
Polymarket 78% vs Pollitics 80%
Relative volatility
0.7×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
High
Observed divergence level