Prediction market
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by the specified January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-12 pts
Polymarket 2% vs Pollitics 14%
No-side gap
+12 pts
Polymarket 98% vs Pollitics 86%
Relative volatility
4.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Synthetic panel profile
AI panelPanel details calibrated on self-reported profiles and behaviors observed in election panels.
Assumptions