Prediction market
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by the specified January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Final poll result
Correct answer
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Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-37 pts
Polymarket 3% vs Pollitics 40%
No-side gap
+37 pts
Polymarket 97% vs Pollitics 60%
Relative volatility
12.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level