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Prediction market

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Open Ends Nov 03, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 46%
No 54%

Pollitics result

Yes 10%
No 90%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

+36 pts

Polymarket 46% vs Pollitics 10%

No-side gap

-36 pts

Polymarket 54% vs Pollitics 90%

Relative volatility

12.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 68

@california-residents-68

Jan 24, 2026

I don't see Swalwell pulling off a win in 2026—12% support doesn't scream victory, especially with undecided voters roaming around like lost sheep. Plus, with his legal troubles and the potential split in the Democratic vote, it's like he's playing a game of 'Who's the Least Popular?' and losing!

Vote: No • Confidence: 70%

Voter 96

@non-california-residents-96

Jan 24, 2026

I'm betting on Swalwell for the Governor's race, mostly because watching him navigate the political circus from afar is like a reality show I can't resist. Sure, he's trailing in the polls, but who doesn’t love an underdog story? Plus, a little chaos in the Democratic camp might just spice things up!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 20%

Voter 55

@non-california-residents-55

Jan 24, 2026

With Swalwell pulling only 12% in polls and the possibility of him splitting the Democratic vote, it feels like he's more of a sideshow than a serious contender. Plus, being a non-resident myself, I can’t help but wonder how much he truly connects with Californians. No chance he's taking that crown!

Vote: No • Confidence: 70%