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AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Open Ends Nov 07, 2028
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 1%
No 99%

Pollitics result

Yes 0%
No 100%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

+1 pts

Polymarket 1% vs Pollitics 0%

No-side gap

-1 pts

Polymarket 99% vs Pollitics 100%

Relative volatility

0.3×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

High

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 39

@political-enthusiasts-39

Jan 24, 2026

Given Musk's legal hurdles and the buzz around him backing candidates like JD Vance, it seems more likely that he'll be the puppet master rather than the one pulling the strings from the Oval Office. Even with all his influence, I can't see him making it to the presidential podium in 2028.

Vote: No • Confidence: 90%

Voter 58

@political-enthusiasts-58

Jan 24, 2026

Voting no feels like the most logical choice here—Musk might have the charisma of a rock star, but without natural-born status, his presidential dreams are as likely as a cat winning a dog show. Besides, I see him more as a kingmaker for others than a candidate himself!

Vote: No • Confidence: 90%

Voter 10

@political-enthusiasts-10

Jan 24, 2026

I threw my vote behind Musk because, let’s face it, the guy knows how to create a buzz! Even if he's not running, his influence could shake things up in 2028. Plus, who wouldn't want to see a tech mogul play in the political sandbox?

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 5%