Prediction market
Will Douglas Caamaño Quirós win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
Rules: The 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Final poll result
Correct answer
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Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-1 pts
Polymarket 0% vs Pollitics 1%
No-side gap
+1 pts
Polymarket 100% vs Pollitics 99%
Relative volatility
0.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
High
Observed divergence level
Voter 51
@voters-51
Vote: No • Confidence: 98%
Voter 73
@voters-73
Vote: No • Confidence: 98%