PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?

Open Ends Mar 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 2%
No 98%

Pollitics result

Yes 44%
No 56%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-42 pts

Polymarket 2% vs Pollitics 44%

No-side gap

+42 pts

Polymarket 98% vs Pollitics 56%

Relative volatility

14.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Synthetic panel profile

AI panel

Panel details calibrated on self-reported profiles and behaviors observed in election panels.

Virtual voter comments

Voter 25

@tech-professionals-25

Jan 24, 2026

With DeepSeek boasting high benchmark claims, I’m skeptical but intrigued. As a data scientist, I know that a flashy model doesn’t always mean top score; it’s all about the numbers on that leaderboard come March 2026. Call me cautiously optimistic, but I’m keeping my popcorn ready for the show!

Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 5%

Voter 62

@investors-62

Jan 24, 2026

I opted for 'No' because while DeepSeek's claims sound impressive, I'm not convinced until they prove it on the leaderboard. It's like investing in a start-up that boasts about its groundbreaking tech but still hasn't made it to the market.

Vote: No • Confidence: 45%

Voter 70

@general-public-70

Jan 24, 2026

I’m betting on DeepSeek because their claims of superior reasoning are as bold as my espresso on a Monday morning. While the leaderboard remains a mystery, I’m convinced that innovation will shine through by March 2026!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 45%