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Prediction market

Will Databricks’ market cap be between $150B and $175B at market close on IPO day?

Open Ends Jun 30, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 1%
No 99%

Pollitics result

Yes 40%
No 60%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-39 pts

Polymarket 1% vs Pollitics 40%

No-side gap

+39 pts

Polymarket 99% vs Pollitics 60%

Relative volatility

13.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 64

@analysts-64

Jan 24, 2026

I opted for 'No' because while Databricks has impressive prospects, its current valuation feels like it’s still warming up. With a $134B baseline, $150B seems a stretch—like trying to squeeze into my high school jeans!

Vote: No • Confidence: 55%

Voter 39

@retail-investors-39

Jan 24, 2026

I don't see Databricks hitting the $150B mark on IPO day. With a recent valuation of $134B, it feels like we're more likely to see a cautious opening, especially since the market is still figuring out its appetite for tech stocks. Let’s hope they prove me wrong, but I’m not betting my coffee on it!

Vote: No • Confidence: 60%

Voter 42

@retail-investors-42

Jan 24, 2026

He votado que sí, aunque tengo mis dudas. Con una valoración privada de $134 mil millones, parece que están a un paso de romper el techo, pero la incertidumbre del mercado siempre puede jugar una mala pasada. ¡Espero que no se queden atascados en el tráfico del IPO!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 35%

Voter 70

@tech-industry-professionals-70

Jan 24, 2026

I believe Databricks is gearing up for a strong IPO, and with its previous valuation, it's not too far-fetched to see it land between $150B and $175B. It’s like betting on the underdog in a finance thriller—exciting and potentially rewarding!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 35%