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Prediction market

Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conrad Kramer ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI. An official announcement of Conrad’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Conrad indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 62%
No 38%

Pollitics result

Yes 30%
No 70%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

+32 pts

Polymarket 62% vs Pollitics 30%

No-side gap

-32 pts

Polymarket 38% vs Pollitics 70%

Relative volatility

10.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 12

@tech-professionals-12

Jan 24, 2026

I lean towards 'No' since there’s no buzz suggesting Conrad will pack his bags anytime soon. Plus, with a solid prediction score of 0.75, it seems like he’s still got a few good years left at OpenAI—unless he finds a better gig, like becoming a professional cat wrangler!

Vote: No • Confidence: 75%

Voter 83

@students-83

Jan 24, 2026

Given the current silence and lack of credible reports about Conrad's departure, I think he's more likely to stick around. Plus, as a product manager, I appreciate stability—let's not rock the boat just yet!

Vote: No • Confidence: 70%

Voter 95

@investors-95

Jan 24, 2026

I believe Conrad will stick around; the recent chatter suggests stability at OpenAI. Plus, why leave a comfy job when you’re at the helm of innovation? My PhD instincts tell me good things are brewing!

Vote: No • Confidence: 75%