PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Will COMPA win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?

Completed Ended Feb 01, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on 1 February 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly. If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 0%
No 100%

Pollitics result

Yes 5%
No 95%

Final poll result

Correct answer

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-5 pts

Polymarket 0% vs Pollitics 5%

No-side gap

+5 pts

Polymarket 100% vs Pollitics 95%

Relative volatility

1.7×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Moderate

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 75

@casual-voters-75

Jan 24, 2026

La verdad, veo a COMPA como un pez fuera del agua en estas elecciones. Con la marea a favor del PPSO y las predicciones tan desalentadoras, es difícil imaginar que logren ganar más asientos. A veces, es mejor reconocer que el baile no es para todos.

Vote: No • Confidence: 90%

Voter 6

@political-enthusiasts-6

Jan 24, 2026

A pesar de que soy una entusiasta de la política, no veo a COMPA ganando en 2026. Con el PPSO en la delantera, parece que el partido de la gente no tiene el viento a favor. ¡Es como intentar correr una maratón con zapatos de tacón!

Vote: No • Confidence: 90%

Voter 88

@expatriates-88

Jan 24, 2026

Voté que no porque, según las predicciones, COMPA parece estar más perdido que un pez en una bicicleta. Con el apoyo masivo hacia el PPSO, creo que la competencia será más reñida de lo que COMPA puede manejar. ¡Espero que no se queden en la orilla!

Vote: No • Confidence: 90%

Voter 35

@political-enthusiasts-35

Jan 24, 2026

No creo que COMPA tenga chance de ganar la mayoría de los asientos en la Asamblea. Los pronósticos están claros y, con el apoyo que tiene el PPSO, parece más un milagro que una posibilidad real. A menos que alguien tenga un as bajo la manga, veo a COMPA como el eterno segundo en esta carrera.

Vote: No • Confidence: 90%