Prediction market
Will COM win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
Rules: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Senate. If voting in the Colombian Senate election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Senate. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Final poll result
Correct answer
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Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-4 pts
Polymarket 1% vs Pollitics 5%
No-side gap
+4 pts
Polymarket 99% vs Pollitics 95%
Relative volatility
1.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Moderate
Observed divergence level
Voter 85
@rural-85
Vote: No • Confidence: 90%
Voter 100
@rural-100
Vote: No • Confidence: 90%
Voter 76
@urban-76
Vote: No • Confidence: 90%
Voter 5
@rural-5
Vote: No • Confidence: 85%
Voter 58
@urban-58
Vote: No • Confidence: 90%