Prediction market
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?
Rules: This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Bitcoin’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between August 5, 2025 at 10:30 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if Bitcoin’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period. If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+22 pts
Polymarket 82% vs Pollitics 60%
No-side gap
-22 pts
Polymarket 18% vs Pollitics 40%
Relative volatility
7.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 66
@investors-66
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 74
@investors-74
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 70%