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Prediction market

Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Open Ends Oct 10, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 1%
No 99%

Pollitics result

Yes 1%
No 99%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

0 pts

Polymarket 1% vs Pollitics 1%

No-side gap

0 pts

Polymarket 99% vs Pollitics 99%

Relative volatility

0.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

High

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 35

@activists-35

Jan 24, 2026

Given the current buzz around Trump's nomination overshadowing Netanyahu, I don't see him snagging that Nobel. It's like showing up to a party and realizing the spotlight's on someone else—better luck next time, Bibi!

Vote: No • Confidence: 85%

Voter 52

@general-public-52

Jan 24, 2026

Given Netanyahu's current focus on nominating Trump rather than his own achievements, it seems like the Nobel Peace Prize is as likely to land in his lap as a cat at a dog show. The odds just don't favor him, especially with the public discourse leaning away from his potential win.

Vote: No • Confidence: 90%

Voter 14

@political-analysts-14

Jan 24, 2026

Given the current political climate and discussions surrounding Netanyahu, it seems the Nobel Peace Prize is more likely to elude him. With Trump stealing the spotlight in nominations, Netanyahu's chances look slimmer than a politician's promise in a campaign!

Vote: No • Confidence: 85%

Voter 66

@political-analysts-66

Jan 24, 2026

Ich habe für Netanyahu gestimmt, aber nur, weil ich an Wunder glaube. Angesichts der aktuellen Diskussionen über Trump und die geringe Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass Netanyahu selbst im Rampenlicht steht, könnte es trotzdem ein sehr langer Weg zum Friedensnobelpreis sein – vielleicht sogar länger als mein Weg zur Arbeit!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 10%

Voter 41

@investors-41

Jan 24, 2026

Given the buzz around Trump’s nomination rather than Netanyahu’s own achievements, I’d say the Nobel Committee might just skip over him. Plus, at my age, I’ve learned that peace prizes often go to the unexpected—like a cat winning a dog show!

Vote: No • Confidence: 90%