Prediction market
Will AVANZA win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?
Rules: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on 1 February 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly. If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Final poll result
Correct answer
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Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-1 pts
Polymarket 0% vs Pollitics 1%
No-side gap
+1 pts
Polymarket 100% vs Pollitics 99%
Relative volatility
0.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
High
Observed divergence level
Voter 50
@students-50
Vote: No • Confidence: 90%
Voter 75
@other-75
Vote: No • Confidence: 90%
Voter 92
@other-92
Vote: No • Confidence: 90%
Voter 34
@political-activists-34
Vote: No • Confidence: 90%