Prediction market
Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?
Rules: This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-3 pts
Polymarket 17% vs Pollitics 20%
No-side gap
+3 pts
Polymarket 83% vs Pollitics 80%
Relative volatility
1.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Moderate
Observed divergence level
Voter 36
@government-officials-36
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%
Voter 15
@political-analysts-15
Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 5%
Voter 46
@ngo-workers-46
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%
Voter 56
@students-of-international-relations-56
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 15%
Voter 96
@students-of-international-relations-96
Vote: No • Confidence: 80%