Prediction market
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ari Weinstein ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI. An official announcement of Ari’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Ari indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-10 pts
Polymarket 10% vs Pollitics 20%
No-side gap
+10 pts
Polymarket 90% vs Pollitics 80%
Relative volatility
3.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 26
@tech-professionals-26
Vote: No • Confidence: 75%
Voter 89
@general-public-89
Vote: No • Confidence: 75%