Prediction market
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?
Rules: Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-14 pts
Polymarket 6% vs Pollitics 20%
No-side gap
+14 pts
Polymarket 94% vs Pollitics 80%
Relative volatility
4.7×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 91
@urban-91
Vote: No • Confidence: 85%
Voter 51
@urban-51
Vote: No • Confidence: 85%