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Prediction market

Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Open Ends Oct 10, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 1%
No 99%

Pollitics result

Yes 5%
No 95%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-4 pts

Polymarket 1% vs Pollitics 5%

No-side gap

+4 pts

Polymarket 99% vs Pollitics 95%

Relative volatility

1.3×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Moderate

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 65

@activists-65

Jan 24, 2026

Acho que Guterres é um ótimo candidato, mas o Nobel é um mistério. Com tantas reviravoltas políticas, prefiro apostar no 'não' e ficar de olho nas surpresas que a comissão pode trazer. Afinal, a paz é mais complicada do que parece!

Vote: No • Confidence: 55%

Voter 47

@general-public-47

Jan 24, 2026

Aposto que Guterres tem uma chance, mesmo que pequena. O cara é como aquele aluno que faz tudo certo, mas o professor nunca dá a nota boa. Vamos ver se a Nobel dá uma chance ao bom trabalho!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 30%

Voter 87

@students-87

Jan 24, 2026

Avec un score de 0,35, il faut bien avouer que les chances de Guterres sont encore dans le flou, un peu comme ma cafetière après un café trop fort. Mais qui sait, peut-être qu'une petite étincelle de paix lui fera gagner le prix en 2026 !

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 35%

Voter 100

@general-public-100

Jan 24, 2026

Aposté por Guterres, aunque la competencia es feroz. Dicen que el Nobel es más secreto que un hechizo de magia, pero en un mundo tan convulso, ¡quién sabe! Quizás el azar me sonría en esta rifa de la paz.

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 30%

Voter 60

@students-60

Jan 24, 2026

I passed on Guterres for the Nobel nod; the odds are more uncertain than my future as a retired student! While he's a solid candidate, the secretive nature of the Nobel Committee makes me skeptical. Let's just say my middle-income instincts are tingling.

Vote: No • Confidence: 55%