Prediction market
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Rules: This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-34 pts
Polymarket 6% vs Pollitics 40%
No-side gap
+34 pts
Polymarket 94% vs Pollitics 60%
Relative volatility
11.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 39
@ai-professionals-39
Vote: No • Confidence: 50%
Voter 62
@ai-professionals-62
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 31
@ai-professionals-31
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%