PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Open Ends Jun 30, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 4%
No 96%

Pollitics result

Yes 55%
No 45%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-51 pts

Polymarket 4% vs Pollitics 55%

No-side gap

+51 pts

Polymarket 96% vs Pollitics 45%

Relative volatility

17.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 21

@tech-professionals-21

Jan 24, 2026

With Claude Opus 4.5 leading the pack, I'm banking on Anthropic to keep its edge through 2026. Sure, Google might be lurking like a cat ready to pounce, but I'm feeling optimistic about Anthropic’s current trajectory—after all, tech surprises are my jam!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 55%

Voter 44

@tech-professionals-44

Jan 24, 2026

With Claude Opus 4.5 currently leading the pack, it feels like betting on the underdog that just became the frontrunner. Sure, Google is lurking, but I’m banking on Anthropic to keep its crown—after all, who doesn't love a good plot twist in the tech saga?

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 55%

Voter 3

@tech-professionals-3

Jan 24, 2026

While Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 is leading now, tech giants like Google are notorious for pulling rabbits out of hats. I bet they'll outpace Anthropic by mid-2026, leaving us with another showdown of the tech titans. Can't wait to see who ends up on top!

Vote: No • Confidence: 40%

Voter 13

@tech-professionals-13

Jan 24, 2026

I went with a 'no' here because while Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 is currently on top, I can’t shake the feeling that Google is just waiting to pull a rabbit out of their hat. It's like betting on a tech race where the underdog might just have a turbo boost up their sleeve!

Vote: No • Confidence: 40%

Voter 43

@tech-professionals-43

Jan 24, 2026

With Claude Opus 4.5 currently leading the pack, it feels like betting on a winning horse. Sure, Google might come out swinging, but I’m banking on Anthropic to keep its edge in this AI race. Plus, who doesn’t love an underdog story in tech?

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 55%