PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Open Ends Jun 30, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 3%
No 97%

Pollitics result

Yes 15%
No 85%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-12 pts

Polymarket 3% vs Pollitics 15%

No-side gap

+12 pts

Polymarket 97% vs Pollitics 85%

Relative volatility

4.0×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 44

@investors-44

Jan 24, 2026

With Alibaba's Qwen2.5-Max peaking at #7, it's clear they're in the game but not quite at the finish line. As an investor, I'm hoping for a surprise, but for now, I'm leaning towards the sidelines—better safe than sorry!

Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 10%

Voter 41

@investors-41

Jan 24, 2026

I believe Alibaba might just surprise us by 2026. They’re climbing the ranks with Qwen2.5-Max, and who doesn't love a good underdog story? Plus, with their resources, they could easily pull a rabbit out of a hat!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 30%

Voter 74

@students-74

Jan 24, 2026

I'm feeling optimistic about Alibaba's chances! Their Qwen2.5-Max has shown some promising tech skills, and who knows, maybe they'll pull a rabbit out of the hat by 2026. Plus, I've got my fingers crossed for an underdog story!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 25%

Voter 67

@general-public-67

Jan 24, 2026

Given Alibaba's Qwen2.5-Max barely scraping into the top 10, I think it's safe to say they might need a bit more magic in their algorithms to top the leaderboard by mid-2026. Plus, let’s be honest, there are some heavy hitters in the AI game that don’t plan on taking it easy!

Vote: No • Confidence: 70%