Prediction market
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Rules: Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-16 pts
Polymarket 34% vs Pollitics 50%
No-side gap
+16 pts
Polymarket 66% vs Pollitics 50%
Relative volatility
5.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 13
@urban-13
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 40%
Voter 66
@expatriate-66
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 40%
Voter 43
@urban-43
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 88
@rural-88
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 21
@urban-21
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%