Prediction market
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Rules: Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+1 pts
Polymarket 26% vs Pollitics 25%
No-side gap
-1 pts
Polymarket 74% vs Pollitics 75%
Relative volatility
0.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
High
Observed divergence level
Voter 86
@expatriate-86
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 39
@urban-39
Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 10%
Voter 84
@expatriate-84
Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 10%
Voter 20
@urban-20
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 62
@rural-62
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%