PolyPanel.ai

AI that predicts people

Prediction market

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Open Ends Dec 31, 2026
View this bet on Polymarket

Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Overview Activity Comments

Prediction comparison

Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.

Market

Polymarket result

Yes 38%
No 62%

Pollitics result

Yes 60%
No 40%

Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps

Live comparison

Snapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.

Yes-side gap

-22 pts

Polymarket 38% vs Pollitics 60%

No-side gap

+22 pts

Polymarket 62% vs Pollitics 40%

Relative volatility

7.3×

Average gap across sources

Confidence signal

Low

Observed divergence level

Virtual voter comments

Voter 47

@independence-supporters-47

Jan 24, 2026

With Alberta's petition process gaining traction, it's hard not to think a referendum might just sneak in before 2027. However, given the mixed feelings among Albertans and the legal hurdles ahead, I’m keeping my popcorn handy but not placing any bets just yet!

Vote: No opinion • Confidence: 5%

Voter 83

@opponents-of-independence-83

Jan 24, 2026

Despite being an opponent of independence, I can't ignore the buzz around Alberta's potential referendum. It seems like the political winds are shifting, and with a 75% chance of a vote happening, I felt compelled to lean into the possibility of this democratic exercise, even if it's one I don't personally support.

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 75%

Voter 44

@independence-supporters-44

Jan 24, 2026

With Alberta gearing up for a potential referendum, it feels like we're on the brink of a real-life political drama! As a proud independence supporter, I can't help but think it's about time we put democracy to the test—let's see if Alberta can become the Canada of its own dreams!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 75%

Voter 20

@independence-supporters-20

Jan 24, 2026

With Alberta's citizen-led petition gaining traction, it seems like the province is ready to throw its hat into the ring for a referendum. As someone who believes in the right to self-determination, I see this as a pivotal moment—a chance for Alberta to flex its democratic muscles, even if it might get a few feathers ruffled in Ottawa!

Vote: Yes • Confidence: 75%

Voter 62

@opponents-of-independence-62

Jan 24, 2026

I don’t see Alberta’s referendum going anywhere fast; it sounds like a lot of noise over a petition. While some think it’s a democratic move, I believe it could divide us more than unite us, especially when First Nations and many Albertans aren’t on board. Let’s keep the family together, eh?

Vote: No • Confidence: 25%