Prediction market
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-1 pts
Polymarket 69% vs Pollitics 70%
No-side gap
+1 pts
Polymarket 31% vs Pollitics 30%
Relative volatility
0.3×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
High
Observed divergence level
Voter 25
@political-analysts-25
Vote: No • Confidence: 30%
Voter 74
@general-public-74
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 65%
Voter 48
@investors-48
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 65%
Voter 37
@media-professionals-37
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 65%