Prediction market
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
+12 pts
Polymarket 77% vs Pollitics 65%
No-side gap
-12 pts
Polymarket 23% vs Pollitics 35%
Relative volatility
4.0×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 5
@government-entities-5
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 65%
Voter 98
@retail-investors-98
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 65%
Voter 28
@institutional-investors-28
Vote: No • Confidence: 30%