Prediction market
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Prediction comparison
Compare Pollitics predictions with Polymarket prices.
Polymarket result
Pollitics result
0%
Polymarket vs Pollitics gaps
Live comparisonSnapshot of how Polymarket positioning differs from Pollitics voting, highlighting the largest gaps.
Yes-side gap
-20 pts
Polymarket 20% vs Pollitics 40%
No-side gap
+20 pts
Polymarket 80% vs Pollitics 60%
Relative volatility
6.7×
Average gap across sources
Confidence signal
Low
Observed divergence level
Voter 53
@general-public-53
Vote: No • Confidence: 60%
Voter 14
@tech-professionals-14
Vote: Yes • Confidence: 35%